Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.008857 21.691735 23.505000 25.613408 28.009534 30.662178 33.840686
2025-09-14 17.305648 19.616218 22.277734 25.607761 29.717080 34.696681 41.306991
2025-09-21 15.328208 17.954755 21.135894 25.350830 30.914296 38.200358 48.819020
2025-09-28 14.391777 17.349527 21.095336 26.327143 33.691734 44.115511 60.886115
2025-10-05 13.244936 16.307842 20.317950 26.149715 34.787876 47.823131 70.681720
2025-10-12 12.352826 15.484491 19.703240 26.059720 35.917915 51.712232 81.854557
2025-10-19 11.740511 14.964846 19.426615 26.382089 37.669404 56.893079 97.069110
2025-10-26 11.076010 14.306517 18.874073 26.195176 38.534595 60.688735 110.967757
2025-11-02 10.476593 13.688267 18.314990 25.915271 39.170281 64.161991 125.611503
2025-11-09 10.019686 13.238459 17.961429 25.911927 40.267160 68.753140 145.221074
2025-11-16 9.556217 12.744913 17.496822 25.664961 40.865088 72.438344 164.471160
2025-11-23 9.159090 12.323494 17.108920 25.501088 41.584324 76.554132 187.686447
2025-11-30 8.773794 11.904800 16.706821 25.293284 42.233106 80.808017 215.200841
2025-12-07 8.439460 11.545732 16.376171 25.181871 43.070834 85.808090 250.477284
2025-12-14 8.097795 11.156079 15.968447 24.888736 43.482238 89.860556 286.517340
2025-12-21 8.009584 11.157917 16.206491 25.820725 46.728755 102.858556 386.722264
2025-12-28 7.731823 10.841293 15.883325 25.640878 47.414316 108.629589 457.807475
2026-01-04 7.489849 10.569779 15.619375 25.550433 48.299104 115.413738 553.567702
2026-01-11 7.329376 10.422303 15.560185 25.862383 50.227389 126.600767 726.946625
2026-01-18 7.103522 10.155829 15.273884 25.680308 50.873326 133.527567 891.255854
2026-01-25 6.879054 9.881652 14.958026 25.408172 51.243713 139.642788 1085.321052
2026-02-01 6.707250 9.688133 14.776503 25.404841 52.346244 149.387180 1428.485877
2026-02-08 6.512786 9.448090 14.496795 25.164846 52.756310 156.443146 1813.377791